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Strong 2Q’18 Global Supply Chain Growth But Second Half Slowing

2Q’18 Electronic Supply Chain Growth Update

  • Chart 1 is a preliminary estimate of global growth of the electronic supply chain by sector for 2Q’18 vs 2Q’17. Note the strong performance of semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and passive components. 
  • Chart 2 gives preliminary 2Q’18 world electronic equipment growth by type. Global electronic equipment sales rose an estimated 9%+ when consolidated into US dollars in the second quarter of this year compared to the same quarter in 2017.
  • Based on this, data global electronic equipment sales growth appears to have now peaked on a 3/12 growth basis for this present business cycle (Chart 3).

 

Custer Chart 1 

 

Custer Chart 2

 

Custer Chart 3

 

As a caution these charts are based on a combination of actual company financial reports and estimates for companies that have not yet reported their calendar second quarter financial results. A number of large companies have yet to report but these early estimates have historically been close to final growth values.  We will update Chart 1 next month.

Semiconductor Capital Equipment Business Cycle

  • Semiconductor capital equipment sales are historically very volatile, with their growth fluctuating MUCH MORE than electronic equipment (Chart 4). However, both series appear to have peaked on a 3/12 basis for this current cycle.

 

Custer Chart 4


  • Semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and Taiwan chip foundry sales all are seeing slower growth. 3/12 values >1 still indicate an expansion but slower growth is indicated.

 

 Custer Chart 5

  

Supply chain performance in the second half of this year bears careful watching!

Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics industry.

Topics: Taiwan , semiconductor , semiconductor capital equipment , electronic supply chain , global , passive components , electronic equipment sales , worldwide

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